Five things to watch for as China reports third-quarter GDP

Five things to watch for as China reports third-quarter GDP

China’s National Bureau of Statistics will reveal if the country’s economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic remains on track when it releases its estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product growth on Monday.

The IMF revised upwards its full-year projection for Chinese growth to 1.9 per cent this week. By comparison, the IMF expects the US and Indian economies to contract 4.3 per cent and 10.3 per cent this year respectively.

Here are five things to look out for as President Xi Jinping’s administration attempts to complete an economic recovery that few people thought possible at the beginning of the year.

How high can quarterly growth go?
After falling 6.8 per cent year on year in the first quarter — the first such contraction in more than 40 years — China’s economy rebounded to grow 3.2 per cent in the second quarter.

Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, projects third and fourth-quarter GDP growth of about 5 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively. He expects growth could surge as high as 15 per cent over the first three months of 2021 because of the low base effect of this year’s first-quarter crash.