- Rand Corporation considers how successful the ruling Communist Party is likely to be in achieving the goals it has set for the next 30 years
- ‘Preparing for a triumphant or ascending China seems most prudent for the United States,’ it says
The United States should prepare for an “ascendant” Communist-led China, according to a report released by Rand Corporation, a US government-funded think tank.The compilers of “China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories and Long-Term Competition” examined how successful the Chinese Communist Party was likely to be in achieving the goals it has set for the country by 2050.
In doing so it considered four possible futures in which China is either “triumphant”, meaning it has achieved all of its goals, “ascendant”, having achieved some but not all of its goals, “stagnant”, meaning it has failed in its ambitions, and “imploding”, meaning the regime itself is under threat.
The report, which was compiled for the US military and published last week, concluded that “ascendant” and “stagnant” were the most likely outcomes.
And while the researchers failed to go so far as to say China’s leaders would be completely triumphant and achieve all of their goals, the US should be ready in case they did.
“Preparing for a triumphant or ascending China seems most prudent for the United States because these scenarios align with current PRC [People’s Republic of China] national development trends and represent the most challenging future scenarios for the US military,” it said.