Will China be ‘triumphant’ in 2050? US must prepare for it, think tank says

Will China be ‘triumphant’ in 2050? US must prepare for it, think tank says

  • Rand Corporation recommends increase in US military funding in the Indo-Pacific to respond to China there, after assessing the likelihood of the ruling Communist Party achieving its goals for the next 30 years.

The United States should prepare for an “ascendant” Communist-led China, according to a report released by Rand Corporation, the US government-funded think tank.

The compilers of China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories and Long-Term Competition examined how successful the Chinese Communist Party was likely to be in achieving the goals it has set for the country by 2050.

They considered four possible futures in which China is “triumphant” (having achieved all of its goals), “ascendant” (having achieved some), “stagnant” (having failed in its ambitions) or “imploding” (the regime is under threat).

Compiled for the US military and published last week, the report concluded that “ascendant” and “stagnant” were the most likely outcomes.

And while the researchers failed to go so far as to say China’s leaders would be completely triumphant and achieve all of their goals, they said the US should be ready in case that occurred.

“Preparing for a triumphant or ascending China seems most prudent for the United States because these scenarios align with current PRC [People’s Republic of China] national development trends and represent the most challenging future scenarios for the US military,” it said.

Diplomatic relations between the US and China are at one of their lowest points in decades, with the two sides clashing on a host of issues, from trade and technology to human rights and Hong Kong.